Rockets' Role Players Shrink in Game 1 Loss

The Golden State Warriors demonstrated on Monday night why it is such a grueling task to defeat them come playoff time. The opposition must execute close to perfection. The Houston Rockets failed to do that in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals and now face a must-win contest on Wednesday night at the Toyota Center.

James Harden, expected to be named the league’s Most Valuable Player, performed at an MVP level—but so did Kevin Durant in the Warriors' 119-106 victory. While Harden scored a game-best 41 points, Durant recorded 37 of his own. Chris Paul, who posted 23 points, 11 rebounds and two steals, was on par with two-time MVP Stephen Curry (18 points, eight assists, two steals and one block).

Review of the game tape and a quick glance at the box score shows that both teams’ superstar duos came to play and essentially offset one another other. But the remaining cast of the Warriors severely outplayed Houston’s. There lies the problem for the Rockets. They don’t have the depth of talent to go neck-and-neck with the Warriors. No NBA team does.

On a night where the Rockets needed Clint Capela (who is far more than just a role player, as these playoffs have shown, but still clearly playing third fiddle to Harden and Paul) to dominate on both ends, he was instead held in check. Houston's center scored just 12 points (mostly off alley-oops) and had just six rebounds—the same amount as Curry.

P.J. Tucker, fresh off scoring 19 and 15 in his last two playoff contests, respectively, had one measly point. He missed all three field goal attempts and went 1-of-3 shooting from the charity stripe. Luc Mbah a Moute couldn’t muster a single point on 0-for-6 shooting, while Trevor Ariza registered just eight points.

Trevor Ariza struggled mightily against the Warriors in Game 1. (Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle)

The aforementioned forwards need to hit outside jumpers for Houston to have a chance this series. Tucker, Mbah a Moute and Ariza went a combined 1-for-9 from behind the arc. They didn’t make an impact on the glass (11 rebounds combined) and had no answer for Durant.

Ariza picked up his fifth foul less than three minutes into the second half. Tucker ended up spending the most time guarding Durant, who used his height to shoot over the top of Tucker. Mbah a Moute actually has the length to defend Durant, but struggled against him in limited chances and put forth a brutal overall showing—as evidenced by his game-worst minus -14 in 20 minutes of action.

Eric Gordon was the only non-star to deliver on offense for the Rockets. The 2017 Sixth Man of the Year had 15 points, five rebounds and three assists in 34 minutes. However, he turned the ball over four times, struggled on the defensive end and posted a minus-10.

So while Houston relied on Capela, Gordon, Tucker, Mbah a Moute and Ariza to aid its superstar duo, Golden State leaned on the likes of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to compliment its superstar pair. Advantage, Golden State.

Thompson had a field day, hitting six treys en route to a 28-point showing, while Green delivered his typical all-around offensive performance (five points, nine rebounds, a team-high nine assists) and stellar defense, which included a couple of steals and blocks.

Iguodala didn’t have nearly the statistical output as Thompson and Green, but his insertion into the starting unit (their “death lineup”) caused all sorts of problems for the Rockets, who were forced to sit Capela during some important stretches of the game to combat Golden State’s smaller unit.

The Rockets are counting on guys outside of Paul and Harden to come through in Game 2. If they don’t, the Rockets will likely be staring at an 0-2 series deficit, which all but ends their upset hopes.

How Rockets Can Upset Warriors

The Houston Rockets won a league-best 65 games in the regular season and have lost just two games this postseason, but will enter the Western Conference Finals as underdogs against the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are listed as -185 favorites to win the series, according to the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. However, the Rockets are currently favored to win Game 1 of the West Finals on Monday night in Houston.

Oddsmakers shouldn’t be ostracized for leaning towards the Warriors over the top-seeded Rockets. Golden State, after all, has posted a 24-3 record over the past two postseasons and has yet to even partake in a series longer than five games since Kevin Durant ditched Oklahoma City for the heavyweight Warriors.

Although it’s tough to foresee the Rockets dethroning the Warriors, here are three factors that could make it possible:

Chris Paul Outplays Stephen Curry

Advancing to the conference finals for the first time in his career, Chris Paul needs to perform at the same superstar level as he did against the Utah Jazz last round. Paul scored 41 points in the Rockets’ series-clinching victory over the Jazz, shooting 13-of-22 shooting from the field—including 8-of-10 from three-point land—and added 10 assists (zero turnovers) with seven rebounds and a steal.

Chris Paul will go head-to-head against Stephen Curry. (Kyle Terada/USA Today Sports)

Paul is certainly capable of outshining two-time MVP Stephen Curry on the big stage. For all the negativity associated with CP3 and his lack of team playoff success, he ranks fifth all-time in postseason assists per contest. Paul, a seven-time member of the NBA All-Defensive First Team, must be physical against Curry, particularly when guarding him away from the ball. The more off-the-ball pressure Paul can provide, the less pick-and-roll opportunities will be available for Curry, who is all but unstoppable in the two-man game on offense.

Clint Capela Maintains Dominance

Clint Capela, a restricted free agent this summer, was a borderline All-Star during the regular season and has shined thus far in the postseason. Houston’s center outplayed his counterparts Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert in successive series. The 7-footer will be challenged, though, by Golden State’s “death lineup,” which features Draymond Green at center.

The Warriors will likely open with their small-ball lineup as they did at the end of their last series against the New Orleans Pelicans. In the past, centers have been pushed off the floor by the quickness of this lineup because it steers the opposing big men away from the hoop. Capela is shifty for a player his size and possesses the ability to keep up with the Warriors’ fast-paced offense. Furthermore, Capela can overpower any player on Golden State’s roster and can be particularly effective in the post versus the death lineup. If things going according to plan, Capela will defend the Warriors’ smaller players well and dominate the paint on offense as he done all playoffs long.

Mbah a Moute and Tucker Play Strong Defense, Hit 3s

The Rockets will rely on Trevor Ariza on defense against Durant to start the game. But offseason additions Luc Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker will be tasked with guarding the superstar forward for portions of the contest as well. Mbah a Moute provides more length against Durant, while Tucker is a more physical defender. Rockets general manager Daryl Morey constructed his roster to match up with the Warriors—even admitting he was obsessed with beating the champs—and brought both players to Houston with an eye on slowing down Durant by bodying him and forcing him to take difficult jump shots.

Mbah a Moute and Tucker are both defensive specialists who don’t provide much offense. As Golden State hones their defense on James Harden, Paul and Capela, forwards Mbah a Moute and Tucker will be often left alone on the perimeter to shoot threes. Tucker has been effective from behind the arc this postseason, making 22-of-48 (45.8 percent) of his 3s. Mbah a Moute missed the first round and made just two of his 10 3s versus the Jazz, but the 31-year-old did hit a career-high 63 three-pointers in the regular season, despite missing 21 games to injury. When Harden and Paul penetrate to the basket, Mbah a Moute and Tucker will be the open men who need to make shots to keep the Warriors’ defense honest and limit their double-teams.

Timberwolves' Disappointing Season Ends in Game 5 Rout

            The Minnesota Timberwolves reached the postseason for the first time since 2004. Two of their players, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler, represented the franchise at the 2018 All-Star festivities. And yet by most measures, this was a dissatisfying season for the Wolves.

            Finishing eighth in the conference and grabbing just one playoff win cannot be considered a success for a team expected to post a top-5 record in the West. The Houston Rockets dispatched the Wolves in five games in the first round of the 2018 postseason, culminating with a convincing 122-104 Game 5 win on Wednesday night. Three of the contests in the series were blowouts, including a Game 4 home loss for Minnesota in which they allowed 50 points in the third quarter.

James Harden and Chris Paul, Houston’s star-studded backcourt, outperformed the Wolves’ duo of Towns and Butler.

Towns was even outplayed by his center counterpart Clint Capela, who is one of the league’s most improved players this season. Capela brought more energy on both sides of the court.

Capela recorded 24 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks in the opening playoff game. Towns had just eight points in the 104-101 Game 1 loss for Minnesota, which missed a golden opportunity to steal home court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets. 

Closing out the series in strong fashion, Capela registered game highs in points (26) and rebounds (15), going 12-of-14 from the field in Game 5. For the series, Capela posted better offensive statistics than Towns—something few could have predicted before the series began. He had averages of 15.8 points and 14.2 rebounds, compared to 15.2 points and 13.4 rebounds per contest for Towns.

Capela outplayed Towns for the majority of the series. (Michael Ciago/Houston Chronicle)

Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins failed to make a significant impact for the Wolves all series, a microcosm of his underwhelming season. The 23-year-old signed a massive contract extension in October—a 5-year, $145.6 million deal that kicks in next season. He remains one of the league’s weakest defenders and offers little outside of scoring.

Butler is eligible for a maximum contract extension in the summer of 2019 and Towns will eventually command a max deal as well. That means the Wolves will feature Towns, Butler and Wiggins for the foreseeable future—a “Big 3” that pales in comparison to the league’s most dominant trios.

            While Tom Thibodeau helped the Wolves reach the postseason, the 2012 NBA Coach of the Year has ran into the same problems as he did in Chicago. This is fitting given that, as the team's president of basketball operations, Thibodeau acquired some of his former Bulls players, including Butler, Taj Gibson, Derrick Rose and Aaron Brooks. He still plays his starters far too long. Towns and Wiggins ranked in the top-15 in total minutes played, while Butler (who missed 23 games this season) ranked in the top-10 in minutes (36.7) per contest. Gibson averaged 33.3 minutes per game.

Thibodeau was frustrated throughout most of Minnesota's five playoff contests. (Jim Mone/AP)

            Thibodeau was brought in for his supposed defensive prowess, but the Wolves ranked 17^th in points allowed per game. Towns has the potential to improve defensively, but Wiggins seems hopeless on that side of the ball and he is under contract through the 2022-23 season.

            The Wolves broke their 14-year playoff drought. But if this season is any indication, they are far from being title contenders.