The Baltimore
Ravens and New England Patriots will square off in the AFC Championship game at
Gillette Stadium for the second straight season. The Patriots won last year,
23-20, as former Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard-field goal that
would have sent the game into overtime. The Ravens beat the Patriots in Baltimore in Week 3 in a controversially officiated game by the
replacement refs.
This year it looked like a long shot
for the Ravens to make a consecutive appearance in the Conference title game,
especially after losing four of their final five regular season games. But
Baltimore has rallied behind their emotional leader, Ray Lewis, who has
announced he will retire after this season. The Ravens handled the Colts with
ease in the wild-card round and then upset the Broncos in Mile High Stadium in
the divisional round. The Patriots stormed through the Texans last week as
their offense looked remarkable in a 41-28 beatdown. Here are the key factors
to look out for in this year’s AFC Championship Game:
Home-Field Advantage
for Brady versus Road King Flaccco
Tom Brady has
been amazing his entire career at home, posting an 86-15 record, including the
playoffs. Brady just passed Joe Montanta for most career playoff wins with his
17th on Sunday versus the Texans. Brady has lost just twice in the
postseason at home, one of which coming in 2009 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco plays well on the road,
recording five road playoffs wins, tied for the most in NFL history with Eli
Manning. Flacco looked stellar last week at Denver, throwing for 331 yards and three
touchdowns with no interceptions.
Joe Flacco Throwing the
Deep Ball
Ravens QB Joe
Flacco has been tremendous firing the deep pass this postseason. He has
averaged 20.4 yards per completion in the postseason. Flacco is 8-of-12 for 324
yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on throws deeper than 20 yards
down-field in the playoffs.
The Ravens looked finished last week
at Denver when they trailed by seven with under a minute left. But Flacco was
able to fire a perfect strike to a wide open Jacoby Jones for a 70-yard
touchdown, forcing overtime and an eventual win for Baltimore. The Patriots
struggle to stop big plays which could be an issue on Sunday. New England’s 29th
ranked pass defense gave up 74 passes of 20 yards or longer in the regular
season, the most in the NFL.
Do the Ravens have
Brady’s number?
Tom Brady is
just 2-2 in his last four contests against the Ravens, including last year’s
AFC Championship game win and this year’s regular season loss at Baltimore. In
these four games, Brady has thrown four touchdowns with a startling seven
interceptions. Brady is arguably the best QB in football, especially when it
comes to taking care of the football, so it is alarming to see the success the
Ravens have against him. According to ESPN Stats and Information, six of the
last seven interceptions Brady has thrown against Baltimore have come on passes
of 10 yards or more. Therefore, Brady would be wise to look for short
completions to speedy wide receiver Wes Welker and skilled tight end Aaron
Hernandez or look to throw towards one of his quick running backs, such as
Danny Woodhead.
Patriots' Balanced
Offense
The Patriots have transformed their
once pass-heavy offense into a balance attack, using Stevan Ridley and Shane
Vereen in the backfield to dominate opponents. The Patriots offensive line has
been a major factor, allowing Ridley and Vereen to run all over opponents. The
offensive line of New England can also boast about providing arguably the best
pass protection in the league for Tom Brady, who is unstoppable when he gets
extra time in the pocket. Although Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edeleman are
sidelined for the Patriots, the Ravens 17th ranked pass defense will
struggle to cover the likes of Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd.
The Patriots also make a concentrated effort to get their halfbacks involved
via the passing game as well, adding another dimension to this dominant passing
game.
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Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have formed a solid running back tandem. (AP Photo)
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Key Matchup: Torrey Smith versus Aqib Talib
Torrey Smith
caught two deep passes for touchdowns last week for the Ravens as he was able
to get by Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey with ease. But Patriots cornerback
Aqib Talib will pose more of a threat to Smith. Talib must keep Smith in front
of him at all times as Smith is Flacco’s favorite down-field target. The Ravens
are 7-0 in games this year in which Smith catches a touchdown pass.
Prediction
The Ravens are
playing their best football of the year as they look inspired on both sides of
the football. Tom Brady and company look especially strong on offense and it
appears no defense can stop them. I will give the edge
to the Patriots because they have the best QB in the league (and possibly of
all time) and the best coach in the NFL. I expect a shootout and close game that will be decided in the final couple of minutes.
Patriots 38, Ravens 34
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