Saturday, January 24, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX: Stats & Prediction


The Numbers Game

6: The number of Super Bowls Tom Brady will have played in when he takes the field for Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona. Bill Belichick will also become the first head coach to appear in six Super Bowls.

10-0: Russell Wilson's perfect record (including playoffs) against QBs who have previously won Super Bowl(s) in their career.

14: Wins recorded (including playoffs) by each Super Bowl participant, which means that for the second straight year the team with the best record will win the championship.

15.9: Points per game allowed by the Seattle Seahawks defense this season, a league-best.

17: Punts returned this season (fewest in the NFL) against Seahawks punter Jon Ryan, who excels in hang time.

19: The number of Seahawks players that were also on last year's championship team, roughly 36 percent of the roster.

34: The age of Seahawks defensive tackle Kevin Williams, who chose Seattle over New England in free agency. The 12-year veteran is the oldest player on the Seahawks roster.

37: Brady's age, making him the oldest player in Super Bowl XLIX.

51.9: The percent of passes completed thrown in the direction of Darrelle Revis, giving the Patriots cornerback the lowest (best) mark in the league against opposing QBs.

80: Points scored by the Patriots in their two playoff games this postseason. 

Prediction
Seattle Seahawks (14-4) vs New England Patriots (14-4)

        The Seahawks will look to repeat as champions against the team who last accomplished that feat—the New England Patriots—who won Super Bowls following the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Seattle's defense looks even better this year, but their offense has taken a hit following Golden Tate's defection to Detroit and the mid-season trade of Percy Harvin. The Patriots must hone their attention on Marshawn Lynch, who is easily the best running back New England has faced this year. The Patriots ranked 9th in the NFL in rushing defense, but surrendered 129 yards to Baltimore's Justin Forsett in the divisional round. New England must also be weary of the dynamic Wilson in the running attack.
            No team has had an answer for stopping Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who can open up the passing game. If Gronkowski is effective, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell will have ample space to operate and become potential game-changing players.
           Both teams are extremely well coached and anchored by elite QBs. It's dangerous betting against Seattle's tenacious defense, but I look for Brady and Co. to prevail by a score of 27-23. Brady and Belichick will seize their fourth Lombardi trophy—their first in 10 years—for the Patriots franchise.

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