Sunday, May 3, 2015

Boogie to Boston? It's Possible

        The Boston Celtics reportedly will try to trade for Sacramento Kings star center DeMarcus Cousins this offseason. According to a report from ESPN’s Marc Stein, the Celtics will target the big man—a long-coveted player of Boston—again this summer. Stein wrote:
        “Will they open their war chest of future draft picks to try to pry DeMarcus Cousins away from the Sacramento via trade? The early word out there is: Bank on it. Will they be in the mix for pretty much any name player who unexpectedly comes available in coming months? Bank on that, too.”
        Celtics GM Danny Ainge said in his end-of-the-season press conference that Boston’s brass plans “to go after any and everybody that we think is a significant player to upgrade our talent.”
        With a boatload of impending first-round picks, Ainge has put the Celtics in arguably the best position to land the 24-year-old center. Cousins, a first time All-Star this season, averaged career-highs of 24.1 points per game and 12.7 rebounds per game with a 25.3 player efficiency rating (PER). Despite missing 23 games due to illness and injury, Cousins recorded 47 double-doubles –tied for the third-most in the NBA. Cousins, who has played all five years of his career with the Kings and is under contract through the 2017-18 season, has never won more than the 29 games he did with Sacramento this season.
        The Celtics are willing to package their treasure trove of first-round picks—up to 10 over the next four years (though some will become second-rounders based off the draft-protections that other teams set forth when dealing their picks to Boston)—to acquire Cousins.
        Could the Celtics land Cousins this offseason? Below is a trade idea (which does work on ESPN's NBA Trade Machine) that would send Boogie to Boston. (All contract details courtesy of HoopsHype.com)
Kings get:
(1) Evan Turner (set to make $3,425,510 in 2015-16, the final year of his contract)
(2) James Young (set to make $1,749,840 in 2015-16 with a team option in 2016-17 and 2017-18 with a potential qualifying offer (assuming team picks up options) in 2018-19)
(3) Gerald Wallace (set to make $10,105,855 in 2015-16, the final year of his contract)
(4) The Celtics’ 2016 first-round pick
(5) The Dallas Mavericks’ 2016 first-round pick (Mavs’ pick is top-7 protected from 2016-2020; unprotected in 2021)
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves’ 2016 first-round pick (Wolves’ pick (via the Phoenix Suns) is top-12 protected in 2016; becomes 2016 and 2017 second-round picks)
Celtics get:
(1) DeMarcus Cousins (set to make $14,728,844 in 2015-16, $15,756,438 in 2016-17 and $16,784,031 in 2017-18)

Why the Kings like this deal
        Sacramento would acquire guard/forward Evan Turner at a bargain price, albeit he is only under contract for just one more year. Turner is coming off a strong first season in Boston, posting averages of 9.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and a career-best 5.5 assists per contest. He recorded three triple-doubles this season, tied for the third-most in the league behind only James Harden (4) and Russell Westbrook (11).
        Turner—27 by the start of next season—appeared to have a career breakthrough in 2014-15. Assuming he continues to develop, Turner could be a key role player on a contending team (which the Kings are light-years away from even with Cousins, but it could benefit them in the long-haul to plummet to the bottom of the standings to grab a high draft pick) with a potential to turn into a solid starter that can play point-forward.
Evan Turner could be an attractive trad chip this summer for the Boston Celtics. (Bob DeChiarra/USA TODAY Sports)
        The Kings also receive shooting guard James Young, who turns 20 this August. The former Kentucky Wildcat and the 17th pick from the 2014 NBA Draft, Young did not see much playing time in his first year in the league as he spent a large portion of the season playing for the Maine Red Claws, the Development League affiliate of the Celtics. Scouts generally see a decent upside in Young, though his defensive issues and lack of strength remain concerns. There’s no telling the future of Young—who is not even legal to drink in the United States—but the guard was selected in the first-round by Ainge, one of the best drafters in the league.
        Gerald Wallace has an expiring contract, which will pay him far more than he deserves. Because the deal is expiring and worth over $10 million, his contract is an attractive asset to make trades financially possible under the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Wallace would play in Sacramento for one season before the franchise washes their hands of him.
       Neither Kelly Olynyk nor Jared Sullinger is included in this deal because the Kings already have a logjam at the power forward position. Carl Landry and Jason Thompson are both under contract for the next two seasons. Neither player has a small contract as Landry earns $6.75 million per year, while Thompson will make roughly $6.6 million per season for the next two years. Derrick Williams, who also plays the 4-position, has a $8.7 million qualifying offer for the 2015-16 season that he will almost certainly accept this summer. With three power forwards already on the roster, neither Sullinger nor Olynyk seem like a good fit on a team with an overload of players at the 4-position.
The Kings are likely uninterested in Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger. (Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
        In the aforementioned trade, the Kings are in position to receive two first-round draft picks (The Wolves' pick from the trade will likely turn into two second rounders—more explanation on this a couple paragraphs below). The first would be from the Celtics, who will almost assuredly make the postseason if they obtain Cousins (they made it this year without any real star talent). Nonetheless, even if the Celtics significantly improve, it’s tough to imagine them finishing with one of the top records in the league, so this pick should be in the low 20’s.
        The Mavs’ pick is top-7 protected, but they won’t finish with one of the seven worst records in the NBA. Dirk Nowitzki showed major signs of aging this season, but Dallas has one of the top coaches in basketball with Rick Carlisle and could make a free-agent splash in the form of LaMarcus Aldridge. Thus, the Kings would still attain the Mavs’ pick in this deal.
        The Wolves’ pick is top-12 protected in 2016. Finishing with the worst record in the league in 2014-15, it’s difficult to foresee Minnesota soaring out of the lottery next season. This means that the Wolves’ first-round pick—which currently is owned by the Celtics—would turn into an early second-round pick in each of the 2016 and 2017 drafts for the Kings if they were to accept this trade.
        The Kings could take a step in the right direction towards their future with this deal. They are going nowhere with the combination of Rudy Gay and Cousins. Gay is severely overpaid and seems to make every team he plays for worse. As talented as Cousins is, he can’t be counted on to carry the Kings to the playoffs by himself. Sacramento would benefit from tearing apart their roster and starting fresh with George Karl, who took over the head coaching duties midseason.
Why the Celtics like this deal
        The Celtics are in search of a post-presence in the middle and Cousins fits that need to a tee. The only player on the roster that can back his man down with his back to the basket is Sullinger, who has irritated Boston’s brass with his inability to stay in shape. Cousins would give the Celtics a scorer down low that can also free up space on the perimeter for outside shooters such as Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas.
DeMarcus Cousins is an ideal fit for the Celtics. (Photo via TheHoopDoctors.com)
        Cousins would also give the Celtics an elite shot-blocker. The Celtics finished last in the NBA in blocks per game (3.8) in 2014-15. Cousins blocked 1.75 shots per contest—the 11th-best mark in the league. He would give the Celtics an elite rim enforcer that can be counted on to protect the paint—something the franchise has not had in a long, long time. 

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