19.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Unrealistic
expectations for the Chiefs have burdened immense pressure on Smith to perform
at a top notch level in his first year in Kansas City. Despite finishing 2-14
last year, many have predicted the Chiefs will make the playoffs, throwing Smith
under the fire immediately. Smith needs to prove that he is not just a system
quarterback and display that his 2011 success was not just completely because
of new head coach Jim Harbaugh
(Smith was horrific for the first five years of his career before Harbaugh was
hired). Although Smith was supplanted by
Colin Kaepernick in the middle of the season last year, he was very effective in the 10 games he appeared in. Last year,
Smith led the NFL in first-down passing, with a quarterback rating of 119. His
rating ascended to 132 in play-action, which is encouraging with the presence
of Jamaal Charles in the backfield
for the Chiefs. Smith is signed with the Chiefs through 2014, but he could be
ran out of town after one year if he does not play at a high level this season.
20.
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
By
selecting West Virginia University wide
receivers' Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey in the draft and adding coveted tight end Jared Cook via free agency, Bradford finally has some weapons to work
with on offense. Bradford plays best out of the shotgun, but has proven to be dependable
in the play-action and bootleg. Bradford's red zone efficiency is not up to par
though. He is too conservative at times and often times will not end the drive
in a touchdown for fear of turning the ball over. With an enhanced supporting
cast, Bradford needs to finish off drives and stop leaving potential points on
the board.
21.
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Freeman
is arguably the most extreme example of a “hot/cold quarterback” (Even more so
than QB Christian Ponder). Freeman
had an amazing six-game stretch of 16 touchdown passes with just six
interceptions last season, propelling the Bucs to five wins in that time span.
He also had a horrid six-game stretch (the Bucs lost five of six in this span),
where he threw 10 interceptions with just six TD passes. A major issue for
Freeman has been handling the blitz. He posted the second-worst QBR versus the
blitz in 2012. The Bucs defense improved significantly in the off-season so the
club’s playoff chances could rest on the shoulders of Freeman, who is playing
for his job.
22.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton
has proven to be a phenomenal game-manager in his first two seasons with the
Bengals. Of course, it is tough to win Super Bowls with game-managing QB’s.
It’s difficult to criticize a guy who has thrown for 47 touchdowns with just 29
interceptions in his career. Then again, Dalton complacency as a quarterback is
widely documented and his tentativeness has proven to be costly against elite defenses. An
interesting stat in regards to Dalton: He is 19-13 as a starter (not including
the playoffs), but has won just two games against opponent’s with a winning
record. This proves that Dalton does take care of business against the teams
the Bengals should beat, but also that he struggles to defeat the upper echelon
teams in the NFL. This is a critical year for Dalton, who seeks his third
playoff appearance in as many seasons as he looks to put behind his postseason
woes from the past two years (0-2 record, zero touchdowns with four
interceptions).
23.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Tannehill
was overshadowed by all the rookie sensations a year ago, but he actually
played decent in his first season under center in the NFL. He did struggle
mightily on third down last season, registering the worst rating of all
starting quarterbacks. Tannehill threw seven of his 13 interceptions on third
down. He needs to do better than his 12 touchdowns (27th in NFL) and
58.3 completion rate (23rd in NFL), especially with a new bevy of
targets in Brandon Gibson, Dustin Keller and most notably, Mike Wallace. It may
be unfair to put excessive pressure on such a young quarterback with
potentially great upside, but if Tannehill doesn’t show signs of progression in
2013, it may be time for the Dolphins to look elsewhere for their franchise
quarterback.
24.
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
Vick
will presumably win the starting quarterback job over Nick Foles and Matt Barkley.
But this could be his last chance as a starter if he does not cut down his
turnovers. In 10 games last season, Vick threw ten interceptions and lost five
fumbles. Maybe Chip Kelly’s up-tempo
offense will benefit Vick, who recorded an exceptional 98 QBR in the two-minute
offense. If Vick wants to be the man under center for Kelly’s shotgun spread
attack beyond 2013, he will need to take care of the football much better.
25.
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
Weeden
played well last season, especially for a rookie, as he tossed 3,385 yards in a
west coast offense that clearly did not play to his strengths. The new offense,
run by new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, will feature play-action and
down-field throws, which both play to the fortes of Weeden. Weeden proved he had
a strong arm last season, but his decision-making wasn’t the greatest and he
posted a horrific 26.6 QBR. Weeden will be 30 by the second of month of the
season, putting the onus on him to succeed this year if he wants to continue
being the man under center in Cleveland, especially since the old regime drafted him,
not the current management.
26.
Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings
Ponder
was an intriguing quarterback last year because when he was good he was really
effective; when he was bad he was really awful. In weeks 1-4, Ponder ranked 10th in the league with a 68.8 QBR. He posted a mere 27.1 QBR from weeks 5-13, the worst
mark in the NFL. The final four weeks of the season Ponder posted an impressive
86.8 QBR, the second best mark in the league. Alas, the jury is still out if
Ponder can be a consistent quarterback that the Vikings can build around, given
his inability to throw the deep ball. Last season, he had only 28 completions
of 20 yards or more, the fewest of any QB to start all 16 games. With the best
running back in the league in Adrian Peterson, a formidable offensive line and a
new, dangerous target in Greg Jennings, Ponder must play well this season to
retain his job moving forward.
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